Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Same Old Song, and Dance. (Packers vs. Bears NFC Championship Preview)

Cutler and Olsen connect on their first playoff passing play together for a 58 yard touchdown reception.

The Bears and Packers have matched up against each other more than any other two teams in NFL History.  Dating back to the 1921 season these two teams have faced off a total of 181 times with the Bears leading the series 92-83-6.  They have each won a game against each other this year, with the final scores being no more than seven points apart.  On Sunday at 2 PM, none of those statistics matter.  The only road-block for these two NFC North rivals from the Super Bowl is each other.

What do the previous two games against each other this season mean?  Basically, nothing.  In the Week 3 17-20 loss at Soldier field the Packers posted a franchise-high eighteen penalties.  Jermichael Finley had nine catches for 115 yards.  Devin Hester returned his first kick for a touchdown since the 2007 season.  Obviously, the chances for the Packers tying or reaching another franchise high in turnovers is highly unlikely and Jermichael Finley will be watching the game in street clothes since he has been on injured reserve since October 18th.

The last match-up of these two teams was not even a month ago.  Why wouldn't it have a huge impact on how the NFC Championship plays out?  "We weren't playing for anything," captain Brian Urlacher commented on the game afterwards, "Everything we needed to do was already done.  The crowd was loud because there was a lot on the line for them.  It didn't seem like a playoff game to me."  Even though the Bears had all of their starters playing they will most certainly be coming into the game on Sunday with a different mentality.  Wide receiver Earl Bennett sat out while Nick Roach, Chris Harris, and Major Wright all left the game.  The Bears will have all of these players healthy and ready to go this weekend thanks to rest from their bye.

Losing to the Packers in Lambeau was not all negative.  The Bears might not even be playing this week had it not been for losing to the Packers in week 17.  If the Giants ended up playing against the Eagles, who knows if Philly would have won and faced off against the Bears last week.  Chicago might have played all out and lost, but they got valuable playing time that helped them not get too rusty in their Wild Card bye week.  Most importantly though, they remained the number two seed which is why they are hosting the game in Chicago on Sunday.

Plenty of predictions will come down to who is the hotter team coming into this game.  There is no denying that both of these teams are peaking right now as the Packers have won four straight elimination games since week 16; the Bears have scored 35 points in five of their past six games.  What this game will come down to is game planning.  Mike Martz vs. Dom Capers will be the big match-up to watch.  Capers' Packer defense came with several different blitz formations in their last match-up against the Bears offense. They came away with six sacks and two interceptions.  You're going to hear all week: the key to the Bears offensive success will be a respectable pass/rush ratio.  Martz called less than 20 rushing plays in five of Chicago's first seven games.  In their final nine games the Bears rushed for an average of 29 times.  The success of the Bears' offense in the second half of the season goes directly in line with that statistic.

Julius Peppers (left) and Brian Urlacher (right) both have made it to the Super Bowl and left empty handed (Peppers with Carolina Panthers in '04 and Urlacher with Bears in '06).  They are both hungry to say the least.

Who will withstand the pressures of playing in the most-hyped non-Super Bowl game ever?  There is plenty of talk about Jay Culter's inexperience in playoff games, but Aaron Rodgers has only played one more than him.  Urlacher, Briggs, and Peppers have the talent and maturity to slow down Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense enough to give Cutler enough chances to win this game.  The Packers' mentality of playing in now five straight elimination games has to be starting to wear on them.  Chicago plays their most intense defensive game of the year, and Cutler makes more big offensive plays than mistakes.  Prediction: Packers 17, Bears 23

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